Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair expires on May 15, 2026, establishing the statutory basis for the market’s heaviest concentration of probability in the immediate post-expiration window. Powell confirmed in late April that he would step down as chair on that date while continuing to serve as a governor through at least January 2028, a move intended to preserve institutional continuity amid ongoing administration pressure for faster rate reductions. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the designated successor occurred days before the term’s end, removing procedural uncertainty and reinforcing trader expectations that departure would occur precisely at the legal deadline rather than earlier. No resignation or removal has taken place despite public tensions, and historical precedent shows chairs typically exit at term’s end absent extraordinary circumstances. This combination of fixed calendar date, explicit statements from Powell, and completed confirmation process accounts for the current pricing distribution across the May intervals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 51.6%
May 23–29 36.9%
May 30–June 5 5.7%
June 6–12 2.5%
$165,280 Vol.
$165,280 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
May 15–22
52%
May 23–29
39%
May 30–June 5
6%
June 6–12
3%
June 13–19
2%
June 20–26
1%
June 27–July 3
1%
After July 3
1%
May 15–22 51.6%
May 23–29 36.9%
May 30–June 5 5.7%
June 6–12 2.5%
$165,280 Vol.
$165,280 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
May 15–22
$62,163 Vol.
52%
May 23–29
$8,197 Vol.
39%
May 30–June 5
$9,064 Vol.
6%
June 6–12
$9,011 Vol.
3%
June 13–19
$8,827 Vol.
2%
June 20–26
$10,043 Vol.
1%
June 27–July 3
$5,151 Vol.
1%
After July 3
$15,871 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair expires on May 15, 2026, establishing the statutory basis for the market’s heaviest concentration of probability in the immediate post-expiration window. Powell confirmed in late April that he would step down as chair on that date while continuing to serve as a governor through at least January 2028, a move intended to preserve institutional continuity amid ongoing administration pressure for faster rate reductions. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the designated successor occurred days before the term’s end, removing procedural uncertainty and reinforcing trader expectations that departure would occur precisely at the legal deadline rather than earlier. No resignation or removal has taken place despite public tensions, and historical precedent shows chairs typically exit at term’s end absent extraordinary circumstances. This combination of fixed calendar date, explicit statements from Powell, and completed confirmation process accounts for the current pricing distribution across the May intervals.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$165,280End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair expires on May 15, 2026, establishing the statutory basis for the market’s heaviest concentration of probability in the immediate post-expiration window. Powell confirmed in late April that he would step down as chair on that date while continuing to serve as a governor through at least January 2028, a move intended to preserve institutional continuity amid ongoing administration pressure for faster rate reductions. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the designated successor occurred days before the term’s end, removing procedural uncertainty and reinforcing trader expectations that departure would occur precisely at the legal deadline rather than earlier. No resignation or removal has taken place despite public tensions, and historical precedent shows chairs typically exit at term’s end absent extraordinary circumstances. This combination of fixed calendar date, explicit statements from Powell, and completed confirmation process accounts for the current pricing distribution across the May intervals.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$165,280End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair expires on May 15, 2026, establishing the statutory basis for the market’s heaviest concentration of probability in the immediate post-expiration window. Powell confirmed in late April that he would step down as chair on that date while continuing to serve as a governor through at least January 2028, a move intended to preserve institutional continuity amid ongoing administration pressure for faster rate reductions. Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the designated successor occurred days before the term’s end, removing procedural uncertainty and reinforcing trader expectations that departure would occur precisely at the legal deadline rather than earlier. No resignation or removal has taken place despite public tensions, and historical precedent shows chairs typically exit at term’s end absent extraordinary circumstances. This combination of fixed calendar date, explicit statements from Powell, and completed confirmation process accounts for the current pricing distribution across the May intervals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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