The Trump administration has expanded federal equity investments in strategic sectors since early 2025, committing roughly $27-28 billion across nearly 40 deals that tie CHIPS Act grants, Defense Production Act authorities, and loan restructurings to minority stakes or warrants. Commerce leads with semiconductor and quantum awards, including recent letters of intent for additional chipmakers, while Defense and Energy focus on critical minerals and defense supply chains. This pattern has already produced confirmed stakes or resolutions for companies such as Intel, MP Materials, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti, and D-Wave, shaping trader views on near-term probabilities for similar outcomes in defense tech, advanced computing, and materials firms by year-end. Scheduled agency announcements and any further CHIPS or national-security funding rounds remain key catalysts through December 2026.