Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 models, especially in "thinking" configurations, command the top four positions on the LM Arena Text leaderboard's Arena Score (Style Control On) as of May 12, with scores reaching 1502 Elo—cementing an 86% trader consensus for retaining #1 by month-end. This dominance stems from recent releases excelling in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8), amid a flurry of frontier model updates. While new launches from rivals could erode the lead, Anthropic's multi-model stronghold and benchmark margin signal strong positioning, though prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game uncertainty in rapid AI iteration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
Google 13%
OpenAI 1.3%
Meta <1%
$384,771 Vol.
$384,771 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
13%
OpenAI
1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 13%
OpenAI 1.3%
Meta <1%
$384,771 Vol.
$384,771 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$40,236 Vol.
86%
$32,049 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$23,839 Vol.
1%
Meta
$24,806 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$22,978 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$24,537 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$35,402 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$20,610 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$33,758 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$15,754 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$18,572 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$22,660 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$18,254 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$27,297 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$24,018 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 models, especially in "thinking" configurations, command the top four positions on the LM Arena Text leaderboard's Arena Score (Style Control On) as of May 12, with scores reaching 1502 Elo—cementing an 86% trader consensus for retaining #1 by month-end. This dominance stems from recent releases excelling in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8), amid a flurry of frontier model updates. While new launches from rivals could erode the lead, Anthropic's multi-model stronghold and benchmark margin signal strong positioning, though prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game uncertainty in rapid AI iteration.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$384,771End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 models, especially in "thinking" configurations, command the top four positions on the LM Arena Text leaderboard's Arena Score (Style Control On) as of May 12, with scores reaching 1502 Elo—cementing an 86% trader consensus for retaining #1 by month-end. This dominance stems from recent releases excelling in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8), amid a flurry of frontier model updates. While new launches from rivals could erode the lead, Anthropic's multi-model stronghold and benchmark margin signal strong positioning, though prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game uncertainty in rapid AI iteration.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$384,771End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 models, especially in "thinking" configurations, command the top four positions on the LM Arena Text leaderboard's Arena Score (Style Control On) as of May 12, with scores reaching 1502 Elo—cementing an 86% trader consensus for retaining #1 by month-end. This dominance stems from recent releases excelling in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 High (1484 at #8), amid a flurry of frontier model updates. While new launches from rivals could erode the lead, Anthropic's multi-model stronghold and benchmark margin signal strong positioning, though prediction markets reflect skin-in-the-game uncertainty in rapid AI iteration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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