NOAA’s updated August outlook reinforces expectations for below-normal Atlantic activity in 2026, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes projected for the full season after just two early tropical storms formed. As of mid-August, the National Hurricane Center reports no active systems in the basin, leaving limited time for development, intensification to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and U.S. landfall before month-end. Colorado State University models similarly assign well-below-average odds for continental U.S. hurricane landfalls this season, reflecting steering patterns and atmospheric conditions that have suppressed activity to date. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to “No” because the combination of a quiet start, subdued seasonal guidance, and the short remaining window leaves little scope for a qualifying hurricane to reach the coast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US in August?
13% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
13% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.NOAA’s updated August outlook reinforces expectations for below-normal Atlantic activity in 2026, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes projected for the full season after just two early tropical storms formed. As of mid-August, the National Hurricane Center reports no active systems in the basin, leaving limited time for development, intensification to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and U.S. landfall before month-end. Colorado State University models similarly assign well-below-average odds for continental U.S. hurricane landfalls this season, reflecting steering patterns and atmospheric conditions that have suppressed activity to date. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to “No” because the combination of a quiet start, subdued seasonal guidance, and the short remaining window leaves little scope for a qualifying hurricane to reach the coast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$984End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.NOAA’s updated August outlook reinforces expectations for below-normal Atlantic activity in 2026, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes projected for the full season after just two early tropical storms formed. As of mid-August, the National Hurricane Center reports no active systems in the basin, leaving limited time for development, intensification to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and U.S. landfall before month-end. Colorado State University models similarly assign well-below-average odds for continental U.S. hurricane landfalls this season, reflecting steering patterns and atmospheric conditions that have suppressed activity to date. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to “No” because the combination of a quiet start, subdued seasonal guidance, and the short remaining window leaves little scope for a qualifying hurricane to reach the coast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Volume
$984End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August outlook reinforces expectations for below-normal Atlantic activity in 2026, with only 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes projected for the full season after just two early tropical storms formed. As of mid-August, the National Hurricane Center reports no active systems in the basin, leaving limited time for development, intensification to hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and U.S. landfall before month-end. Colorado State University models similarly assign well-below-average odds for continental U.S. hurricane landfalls this season, reflecting steering patterns and atmospheric conditions that have suppressed activity to date. Traders assign an 87.5% implied probability to “No” because the combination of a quiet start, subdued seasonal guidance, and the short remaining window leaves little scope for a qualifying hurricane to reach the coast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions