Elon Musk’s May 2025 exit from the Department of Government Efficiency after clashing with President Trump over spending legislation remains the dominant factor behind traders’ 92% implied probability against a 2026 reentry. His subsequent emphasis on Tesla’s robotaxi and Optimus programs, SpaceX launches, and xAI model releases has kept him focused on private-sector priorities rather than government roles. While the two reconciled by mid-2026 with Musk attending White House AI events and state dinners, these appearances stayed informal and outside formal administration structures. A limited Pentagon advisory role on Project Meridian announced in the past 48 hours fits this pattern without triggering a full return. Unexpected escalation into a cabinet-level post or major policy reversal could still shift odds, though such moves appear unlikely given Musk’s business commitments.