Traders assign a 99.1% probability that Elon Musk will not announce a presidential run before 2027, reflecting broad recognition of the constitutional requirement that the president be a natural-born U.S. citizen, a status Musk does not hold. Recent developments reinforce this view: after floating a third-party effort in 2025 amid disputes over legislation, Musk has since scaled back those plans to focus on his companies and midterm support for Republican candidates, including potential alignment with figures like JD Vance. Public statements and actions show no movement toward a personal candidacy. Late developments such as shifts in eligibility interpretations, major health or legal events, or abrupt changes in Musk’s priorities could still prompt reconsideration, though such outcomes remain remote given established barriers and current trajectory.