Eduardo Braga (MDB) holds an 80% implied probability for first place in the Amazonas Senate race because multiple late-September and early-October 2026 surveys show him leading first-preference votes by double-digit margins, often 38–49% compared with 19–22% for Capitão Alberto Neto (PL). As voters select two senators, Braga’s consistent edge in the initial choice across polls from Action, IPEN, Quaest, and DMP has shaped trader consensus. Neto, Wilson Lima (União Brasil), and Plínio Valério (PSDB) remain competitive for the second seat, but trail Braga substantially in first-vote measures. The October 4 election date leaves little time for major shifts before resolution.