Renan Calheiros holds a modest lead in trader consensus for first place in the Alagoas Senate contest, reflecting his long incumbency and MDB organizational base ahead of the October 2026 vote. The field remains fragmented with declared or pre-candidates such as Arthur Lira, Alexandre Fleming, Davi Davino Filho, and others, each drawing support from distinct regional and party networks. Alfredo Gaspar’s recent withdrawal has altered vote consolidation patterns without producing immediate separation in surveys. High undecided shares and overlapping alliances continue to compress probabilities, while scheduled party conventions, forthcoming polling releases, and formal campaign launches could shift positioning by clarifying voter preferences or triggering last-minute realignments among the two seats at stake.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenan 55%
Arthur Lira 23%
Dr. Wanderley 22%
Marina JHC 22%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
55%
Arthur Lira
23%
Dr. Wanderley
22%
Marina JHC
22%
Mariedson
22%
Davi Davino Filho
22%
Alexandre Fleming
19%
Renan 55%
Arthur Lira 23%
Dr. Wanderley 22%
Marina JHC 22%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renan
$62 Vol.
55%
Arthur Lira
$0 Vol.
23%
Dr. Wanderley
$0 Vol.
22%
Marina JHC
$0 Vol.
22%
Mariedson
$0 Vol.
22%
Davi Davino Filho
$0 Vol.
22%
Alexandre Fleming
$71 Vol.
19%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renan Calheiros holds a modest lead in trader consensus for first place in the Alagoas Senate contest, reflecting his long incumbency and MDB organizational base ahead of the October 2026 vote. The field remains fragmented with declared or pre-candidates such as Arthur Lira, Alexandre Fleming, Davi Davino Filho, and others, each drawing support from distinct regional and party networks. Alfredo Gaspar’s recent withdrawal has altered vote consolidation patterns without producing immediate separation in surveys. High undecided shares and overlapping alliances continue to compress probabilities, while scheduled party conventions, forthcoming polling releases, and formal campaign launches could shift positioning by clarifying voter preferences or triggering last-minute realignments among the two seats at stake.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$133End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renan Calheiros holds a modest lead in trader consensus for first place in the Alagoas Senate contest, reflecting his long incumbency and MDB organizational base ahead of the October 2026 vote. The field remains fragmented with declared or pre-candidates such as Arthur Lira, Alexandre Fleming, Davi Davino Filho, and others, each drawing support from distinct regional and party networks. Alfredo Gaspar’s recent withdrawal has altered vote consolidation patterns without producing immediate separation in surveys. High undecided shares and overlapping alliances continue to compress probabilities, while scheduled party conventions, forthcoming polling releases, and formal campaign launches could shift positioning by clarifying voter preferences or triggering last-minute realignments among the two seats at stake.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$133End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renan Calheiros holds a modest lead in trader consensus for first place in the Alagoas Senate contest, reflecting his long incumbency and MDB organizational base ahead of the October 2026 vote. The field remains fragmented with declared or pre-candidates such as Arthur Lira, Alexandre Fleming, Davi Davino Filho, and others, each drawing support from distinct regional and party networks. Alfredo Gaspar’s recent withdrawal has altered vote consolidation patterns without producing immediate separation in surveys. High undecided shares and overlapping alliances continue to compress probabilities, while scheduled party conventions, forthcoming polling releases, and formal campaign launches could shift positioning by clarifying voter preferences or triggering last-minute realignments among the two seats at stake.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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