Recent federal investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar’s 2000 naturalization centers on alleged misstatements about her age and her late father’s immigration paperwork, prompting a Homeland Security raid on her Washington home in mid-October 2026. President Trump and border officials have publicly referenced possible denaturalization and removal, while Omar maintains the probe is politically motivated and denies any fraud. Denaturalization requires civil or criminal court proceedings with substantial evidence thresholds, followed by removal orders, steps that historically extend well beyond months. Trader pricing at 11 percent by mid-2027 and under 3 percent by year-end aligns with these procedural realities and the absence of filed charges or orders to date. Midterm elections and any further subpoenas or filings could influence momentum.