**Trader consensus heavily favors stability in the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, through the end of 2026.** The clock derives its timestamp from the remaining carbon budget calculated by the Mercator Research Institute, assuming steady annual CO₂ emissions around 42 Gt without major revisions to climate sensitivity or observed trends. Updates occur infrequently, typically following comprehensive IPCC assessments rather than year-to-year fluctuations, and no such reassessment is scheduled that would shift the date by more than 30 days before 2027. Recent data showing 2024 as the first calendar year above 1.5°C and continued high emissions align with the existing budget trajectory, while temporary El Niño influences and multi-decadal averaging do not trigger immediate model changes. This supports the 84.5% implied probability for no alteration, reflecting the deliberate, evidence-based pace of scientific carbon budget refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
16% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
16% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus heavily favors stability in the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, through the end of 2026.** The clock derives its timestamp from the remaining carbon budget calculated by the Mercator Research Institute, assuming steady annual CO₂ emissions around 42 Gt without major revisions to climate sensitivity or observed trends. Updates occur infrequently, typically following comprehensive IPCC assessments rather than year-to-year fluctuations, and no such reassessment is scheduled that would shift the date by more than 30 days before 2027. Recent data showing 2024 as the first calendar year above 1.5°C and continued high emissions align with the existing budget trajectory, while temporary El Niño influences and multi-decadal averaging do not trigger immediate model changes. This supports the 84.5% implied probability for no alteration, reflecting the deliberate, evidence-based pace of scientific carbon budget refinements.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$7,857End Date
Dec 31, 2029Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus heavily favors stability in the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, through the end of 2026.** The clock derives its timestamp from the remaining carbon budget calculated by the Mercator Research Institute, assuming steady annual CO₂ emissions around 42 Gt without major revisions to climate sensitivity or observed trends. Updates occur infrequently, typically following comprehensive IPCC assessments rather than year-to-year fluctuations, and no such reassessment is scheduled that would shift the date by more than 30 days before 2027. Recent data showing 2024 as the first calendar year above 1.5°C and continued high emissions align with the existing budget trajectory, while temporary El Niño influences and multi-decadal averaging do not trigger immediate model changes. This supports the 84.5% implied probability for no alteration, reflecting the deliberate, evidence-based pace of scientific carbon budget refinements.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$7,857End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors stability in the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C deadline, currently set at July 22, 2029, through the end of 2026.** The clock derives its timestamp from the remaining carbon budget calculated by the Mercator Research Institute, assuming steady annual CO₂ emissions around 42 Gt without major revisions to climate sensitivity or observed trends. Updates occur infrequently, typically following comprehensive IPCC assessments rather than year-to-year fluctuations, and no such reassessment is scheduled that would shift the date by more than 30 days before 2027. Recent data showing 2024 as the first calendar year above 1.5°C and continued high emissions align with the existing budget trajectory, while temporary El Niño influences and multi-decadal averaging do not trigger immediate model changes. This supports the 84.5% implied probability for no alteration, reflecting the deliberate, evidence-based pace of scientific carbon budget refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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