Ukrainian forces have prioritized counteroffensive operations north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing multiple villages and disrupting Russian attempts to encircle the Fortress Belt around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. These gains stand in contrast to the Zaporizhzhya sector, where Russian units seized Obratne and Temyrivka northeast of Hulyaipole in late 2025 and continue to hold defensive positions along key routes amid limited reported changes. Broader Ukrainian advances in 2026 have exceeded 970 square kilometers according to open-source mapping, yet activity near Hulyaipole remains focused on drone strikes against Russian logistics rather than direct assaults on these specific settlements. Russian forces maintain incremental pressure in adjacent areas while Ukrainian long-range strikes target rear infrastructure, keeping the local front relatively static. Trader pricing reflects this geographic divergence in momentum, with scheduled events such as ongoing artillery exchanges and potential winter constraints on maneuver likely to influence any near-term shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
$69,347 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
December 31
34%
$69,347 Vol.
September 30
$25,877 Vol.
3%
December 31
$21,735 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have prioritized counteroffensive operations north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing multiple villages and disrupting Russian attempts to encircle the Fortress Belt around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. These gains stand in contrast to the Zaporizhzhya sector, where Russian units seized Obratne and Temyrivka northeast of Hulyaipole in late 2025 and continue to hold defensive positions along key routes amid limited reported changes. Broader Ukrainian advances in 2026 have exceeded 970 square kilometers according to open-source mapping, yet activity near Hulyaipole remains focused on drone strikes against Russian logistics rather than direct assaults on these specific settlements. Russian forces maintain incremental pressure in adjacent areas while Ukrainian long-range strikes target rear infrastructure, keeping the local front relatively static. Trader pricing reflects this geographic divergence in momentum, with scheduled events such as ongoing artillery exchanges and potential winter constraints on maneuver likely to influence any near-term shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 9:58 AM ET
Volume
$69,347End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Ukrainian forces have prioritized counteroffensive operations north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing multiple villages and disrupting Russian attempts to encircle the Fortress Belt around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. These gains stand in contrast to the Zaporizhzhya sector, where Russian units seized Obratne and Temyrivka northeast of Hulyaipole in late 2025 and continue to hold defensive positions along key routes amid limited reported changes. Broader Ukrainian advances in 2026 have exceeded 970 square kilometers according to open-source mapping, yet activity near Hulyaipole remains focused on drone strikes against Russian logistics rather than direct assaults on these specific settlements. Russian forces maintain incremental pressure in adjacent areas while Ukrainian long-range strikes target rear infrastructure, keeping the local front relatively static. Trader pricing reflects this geographic divergence in momentum, with scheduled events such as ongoing artillery exchanges and potential winter constraints on maneuver likely to influence any near-term shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$69,347End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 9:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have prioritized counteroffensive operations north of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast through Operation Vivaldi, clearing multiple villages and disrupting Russian attempts to encircle the Fortress Belt around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. These gains stand in contrast to the Zaporizhzhya sector, where Russian units seized Obratne and Temyrivka northeast of Hulyaipole in late 2025 and continue to hold defensive positions along key routes amid limited reported changes. Broader Ukrainian advances in 2026 have exceeded 970 square kilometers according to open-source mapping, yet activity near Hulyaipole remains focused on drone strikes against Russian logistics rather than direct assaults on these specific settlements. Russian forces maintain incremental pressure in adjacent areas while Ukrainian long-range strikes target rear infrastructure, keeping the local front relatively static. Trader pricing reflects this geographic divergence in momentum, with scheduled events such as ongoing artillery exchanges and potential winter constraints on maneuver likely to influence any near-term shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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