Wyoming's at-large House seat remains a solidly Republican contest heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders pricing the party's nominee at a commanding 94 percent implied probability. The state's consistent conservative electorate, reflected in large prior margins for Republican candidates, underpins the outlook despite the open seat created by Harriet Hageman's Senate bid. Multiple candidates are competing in the August 18 Republican primary, but any nominee is expected to hold the district comfortably against Democratic primary contenders. Race forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a damaging primary scandal, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a sharp national shift against the party, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWY-AL House Election Winner
WY-AL House Election Winner
$42,399 Vol.
$42,399 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
2%
$42,399 Vol.
$42,399 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$18,591 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$23,808 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large House seat remains a solidly Republican contest heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders pricing the party's nominee at a commanding 94 percent implied probability. The state's consistent conservative electorate, reflected in large prior margins for Republican candidates, underpins the outlook despite the open seat created by Harriet Hageman's Senate bid. Multiple candidates are competing in the August 18 Republican primary, but any nominee is expected to hold the district comfortably against Democratic primary contenders. Race forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a damaging primary scandal, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a sharp national shift against the party, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$42,399End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wyoming's at-large House seat remains a solidly Republican contest heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders pricing the party's nominee at a commanding 94 percent implied probability. The state's consistent conservative electorate, reflected in large prior margins for Republican candidates, underpins the outlook despite the open seat created by Harriet Hageman's Senate bid. Multiple candidates are competing in the August 18 Republican primary, but any nominee is expected to hold the district comfortably against Democratic primary contenders. Race forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a damaging primary scandal, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a sharp national shift against the party, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,399End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming's at-large House seat remains a solidly Republican contest heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders pricing the party's nominee at a commanding 94 percent implied probability. The state's consistent conservative electorate, reflected in large prior margins for Republican candidates, underpins the outlook despite the open seat created by Harriet Hageman's Senate bid. Multiple candidates are competing in the August 18 Republican primary, but any nominee is expected to hold the district comfortably against Democratic primary contenders. Race forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a damaging primary scandal, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a sharp national shift against the party, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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