Kansas's 4th congressional district, anchored in Wichita and rated R+12 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, has favored Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including a 23-point Trump victory in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Ron Estes secured the GOP nomination in the August 2026 primary without significant opposition and faces limited Democratic challengers in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome near 92 percent, reflecting this structural advantage and low expected volatility. A major candidate scandal, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or an unusually strong local opponent could narrow the margin, though historical data and current indicators show few signs of such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKS-04 House Election Winner
KS-04 House Election Winner
$67,454 Vol.
$67,454 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$67,454 Vol.
$67,454 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$38,806 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$28,648 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kansas's 4th congressional district, anchored in Wichita and rated R+12 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, has favored Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including a 23-point Trump victory in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Ron Estes secured the GOP nomination in the August 2026 primary without significant opposition and faces limited Democratic challengers in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome near 92 percent, reflecting this structural advantage and low expected volatility. A major candidate scandal, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or an unusually strong local opponent could narrow the margin, though historical data and current indicators show few signs of such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$67,454End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kansas's 4th congressional district, anchored in Wichita and rated R+12 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, has favored Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including a 23-point Trump victory in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Ron Estes secured the GOP nomination in the August 2026 primary without significant opposition and faces limited Democratic challengers in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome near 92 percent, reflecting this structural advantage and low expected volatility. A major candidate scandal, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or an unusually strong local opponent could narrow the margin, though historical data and current indicators show few signs of such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$67,454End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kansas's 4th congressional district, anchored in Wichita and rated R+12 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, has favored Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, including a 23-point Trump victory in the prior presidential contest. Incumbent Ron Estes secured the GOP nomination in the August 2026 primary without significant opposition and faces limited Democratic challengers in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary or general-election dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome near 92 percent, reflecting this structural advantage and low expected volatility. A major candidate scandal, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or an unusually strong local opponent could narrow the margin, though historical data and current indicators show few signs of such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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