California's newly redrawn First Congressional District, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while shedding several rural Republican strongholds, creating a structural advantage reflected in the 91.5% Democratic consensus. This shift produced a district where Kamala Harris carried a 12-point margin in 2024 estimates, prompting forecasters to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election on the prior boundaries, but the regular contest proceeds on the updated map with Democrats Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher among the leading candidates. The June 2 top-two primary will narrow the field ahead of the November vote. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, unusually strong turnout in remaining rural precincts, or a candidate scandal could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$22,046 Vol.
$22,046 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
92%
Parti républicain
6%
$22,046 Vol.
$22,046 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$14,173 Vol.
92%
Parti républicain
$7,873 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's newly redrawn First Congressional District, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while shedding several rural Republican strongholds, creating a structural advantage reflected in the 91.5% Democratic consensus. This shift produced a district where Kamala Harris carried a 12-point margin in 2024 estimates, prompting forecasters to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election on the prior boundaries, but the regular contest proceeds on the updated map with Democrats Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher among the leading candidates. The June 2 top-two primary will narrow the field ahead of the November vote. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, unusually strong turnout in remaining rural precincts, or a candidate scandal could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$22,046Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's newly redrawn First Congressional District, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while shedding several rural Republican strongholds, creating a structural advantage reflected in the 91.5% Democratic consensus. This shift produced a district where Kamala Harris carried a 12-point margin in 2024 estimates, prompting forecasters to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election on the prior boundaries, but the regular contest proceeds on the updated map with Democrats Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher among the leading candidates. The June 2 top-two primary will narrow the field ahead of the November vote. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, unusually strong turnout in remaining rural precincts, or a candidate scandal could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,046Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's newly redrawn First Congressional District, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa while shedding several rural Republican strongholds, creating a structural advantage reflected in the 91.5% Democratic consensus. This shift produced a district where Kamala Harris carried a 12-point margin in 2024 estimates, prompting forecasters to rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election on the prior boundaries, but the regular contest proceeds on the updated map with Democrats Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire and Republican James Gallagher among the leading candidates. The June 2 top-two primary will narrow the field ahead of the November vote. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, unusually strong turnout in remaining rural precincts, or a candidate scandal could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged to date.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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