Recent ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models highlight substantial uncertainty for Guangzhou’s peak temperature on May 17, with consensus clustering near 28°C amid variable cloud cover and the risk of patchy rain that could limit daytime solar heating. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 28°C at 38 percent, closely followed by 29°C at 30 percent, reflecting the narrow range of outcomes expected under typical late-spring conditions in the Pearl River Delta. Model spreads arise primarily from differences in predicted boundary-layer moisture and steering flow, while historical May averages near 30°C provide a baseline that current atmospheric setup appears poised to moderate. Updated runs overnight and morning observations at Baiyun International Airport will refine the final outcome before resolution.