**Forecast models and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a highest temperature near 28–30 °C on June 15, 2026, with showers expected to limit daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—potentially accumulating up to 200 mm over June 14–15—reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping surface temperatures below the June climatological average of about 31 °C. Seasonal outlooks already flag above-normal warmth for the June–August period due to long-term climate trends, yet the immediate synoptic pattern favors instability and moisture that caps the daily maximum. Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 29 °C (37 %), 28 °C (22.5 %), and 30 °C (21 %), reflecting the narrow range in current multi-model consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated forecast runs or clearer skies could shift odds toward the upper end of that band; heavier or more prolonged rain would favor the lower side.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
29°C 34%
28°C 24%
30°C 21%
27°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juin 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
8%
28°C
24%
29°C
34%
30°C
21%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 34%
28°C 24%
30°C 21%
27°C 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juin 2026
23°C or below
$914 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,099 Vol.
1%
26°C
$508 Vol.
1%
27°C
$367 Vol.
8%
28°C
$675 Vol.
24%
29°C
$1,456 Vol.
34%
30°C
$1,390 Vol.
21%
31°C
$853 Vol.
6%
32°C
$216 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$591 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast models and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a highest temperature near 28–30 °C on June 15, 2026, with showers expected to limit daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—potentially accumulating up to 200 mm over June 14–15—reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping surface temperatures below the June climatological average of about 31 °C. Seasonal outlooks already flag above-normal warmth for the June–August period due to long-term climate trends, yet the immediate synoptic pattern favors instability and moisture that caps the daily maximum.
Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 29 °C (37 %), 28 °C (22.5 %), and 30 °C (21 %), reflecting the narrow range in current multi-model consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated forecast runs or clearer skies could shift odds toward the upper end of that band; heavier or more prolonged rain would favor the lower side.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$8,083Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast models and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a highest temperature near 28–30 °C on June 15, 2026, with showers expected to limit daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—potentially accumulating up to 200 mm over June 14–15—reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping surface temperatures below the June climatological average of about 31 °C. Seasonal outlooks already flag above-normal warmth for the June–August period due to long-term climate trends, yet the immediate synoptic pattern favors instability and moisture that caps the daily maximum.
Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 29 °C (37 %), 28 °C (22.5 %), and 30 °C (21 %), reflecting the narrow range in current multi-model consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated forecast runs or clearer skies could shift odds toward the upper end of that band; heavier or more prolonged rain would favor the lower side.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,083Date de fin
15 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a highest temperature near 28–30 °C on June 15, 2026, with showers expected to limit daytime heating.** Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—potentially accumulating up to 200 mm over June 14–15—reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping surface temperatures below the June climatological average of about 31 °C. Seasonal outlooks already flag above-normal warmth for the June–August period due to long-term climate trends, yet the immediate synoptic pattern favors instability and moisture that caps the daily maximum. Traders have therefore concentrated probability on 29 °C (37 %), 28 °C (22.5 %), and 30 °C (21 %), reflecting the narrow range in current multi-model consensus while acknowledging residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated forecast runs or clearer skies could shift odds toward the upper end of that band; heavier or more prolonged rain would favor the lower side.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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