Traders have converged on a 30°C outcome at 99.9% implied probability because official Hong Kong Observatory readings for June 12, 2026, recorded a daily maximum of 30°C under typical early-summer subtropical conditions. Regional stations reported afternoon peaks near 30–31°C amid moderate humidity, cloud cover, and light winds that prevented further warming, aligning with June climatological averages of 30–31°C and recent model consensus from monitoring agencies. This positioning rests on verified station data rather than forecasts, though minor revisions in final observatory tabulations or localized urban heat effects could theoretically shift the exact bin. Resolution criteria focus strictly on the single highest official Celsius reading for that calendar day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
30°C 99.9%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$220,173 Vol.
$220,173 Vol.
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
30°C 99.9%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$220,173 Vol.
$220,173 Vol.
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have converged on a 30°C outcome at 99.9% implied probability because official Hong Kong Observatory readings for June 12, 2026, recorded a daily maximum of 30°C under typical early-summer subtropical conditions. Regional stations reported afternoon peaks near 30–31°C amid moderate humidity, cloud cover, and light winds that prevented further warming, aligning with June climatological averages of 30–31°C and recent model consensus from monitoring agencies. This positioning rests on verified station data rather than forecasts, though minor revisions in final observatory tabulations or localized urban heat effects could theoretically shift the exact bin. Resolution criteria focus strictly on the single highest official Celsius reading for that calendar day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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