The contest for second place in Mexico’s June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election remains tightly bunched because recent national polling shows the main opposition parties—PRI, MC, PAN, PVEM, and PT—clustered well behind Morena yet separated by only a few points from one another. May surveys placed Morena in the high 30s to low 40s while the opposition parties traded narrow leads depending on the pollster, reflecting fragmented voter preferences and uncertainty over whether traditional rivals will form partial alliances or run independently. Ongoing debates over electoral reform have also complicated positioning, as occasional breaks in the Morena-PVEM-PT bloc highlight shifting coalition incentives without yet producing a clear frontrunner for the runner-up slot. Traders therefore assign similar probabilities across these outcomes, awaiting clearer signals from candidate nominations and alliance announcements in the coming months.