Traders assign overwhelming probability to Keiko Fujimori securing a narrow victory over Roberto Sánchez because preliminary tallies show her maintaining strength in urban centers like Lima and the coast while Sánchez draws rural and Andean support. With roughly 95 percent of votes counted, the contest remains within one percentage point, consistent with patterns from Peru’s recent runoffs that featured prolonged counts and regional polarization over security and economic policy. The market’s heavy weighting on a 0–4 percent Fujimori margin reflects expectations that urban advantages will hold once remaining rural ballots are fully incorporated and any recounts concluded. A decisive shift in late rural returns, sustained challenges to vote validity, or institutional delays extending into July could still alter the final margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection au Pérou 2ème tour : Marge de la victoire ?
Élection au Pérou 2ème tour : Marge de la victoire ?
Fujimori 0–4% 91.7%
Sánchez 0–4% 7.5%
Fujimori 4–8% <1%
Fujimori 12%+ <1%
$948,536 Vol.
$948,536 Vol.
7 juin 2026
Fujimori 12%+
<1%
Fujimori 8–12%
<1%
Fujimori 4–8%
<1%
Fujimori 0–4%
92%
Sánchez 0–4%
8%
Sánchez 4–8%
<1%
Sánchez 8–12%
<1%
Sánchez 12%+
<1%
Fujimori 0–4% 91.7%
Sánchez 0–4% 7.5%
Fujimori 4–8% <1%
Fujimori 12%+ <1%
$948,536 Vol.
$948,536 Vol.
7 juin 2026
Fujimori 12%+
$65,110 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 8–12%
$48,699 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 4–8%
$142,563 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0–4%
$274,811 Vol.
92%
Sánchez 0–4%
$267,587 Vol.
8%
Sánchez 4–8%
$83,056 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 8–12%
$38,069 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 12%+
$30,961 Vol.
<1%
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Traders assign overwhelming probability to Keiko Fujimori securing a narrow victory over Roberto Sánchez because preliminary tallies show her maintaining strength in urban centers like Lima and the coast while Sánchez draws rural and Andean support. With roughly 95 percent of votes counted, the contest remains within one percentage point, consistent with patterns from Peru’s recent runoffs that featured prolonged counts and regional polarization over security and economic policy. The market’s heavy weighting on a 0–4 percent Fujimori margin reflects expectations that urban advantages will hold once remaining rural ballots are fully incorporated and any recounts concluded. A decisive shift in late rural returns, sustained challenges to vote validity, or institutional delays extending into July could still alter the final margin.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : May 21, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$948,536Date de fin
7 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 21, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Traders assign overwhelming probability to Keiko Fujimori securing a narrow victory over Roberto Sánchez because preliminary tallies show her maintaining strength in urban centers like Lima and the coast while Sánchez draws rural and Andean support. With roughly 95 percent of votes counted, the contest remains within one percentage point, consistent with patterns from Peru’s recent runoffs that featured prolonged counts and regional polarization over security and economic policy. The market’s heavy weighting on a 0–4 percent Fujimori margin reflects expectations that urban advantages will hold once remaining rural ballots are fully incorporated and any recounts concluded. A decisive shift in late rural returns, sustained challenges to vote validity, or institutional delays extending into July could still alter the final margin.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$948,536Date de fin
7 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 21, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign overwhelming probability to Keiko Fujimori securing a narrow victory over Roberto Sánchez because preliminary tallies show her maintaining strength in urban centers like Lima and the coast while Sánchez draws rural and Andean support. With roughly 95 percent of votes counted, the contest remains within one percentage point, consistent with patterns from Peru’s recent runoffs that featured prolonged counts and regional polarization over security and economic policy. The market’s heavy weighting on a 0–4 percent Fujimori margin reflects expectations that urban advantages will hold once remaining rural ballots are fully incorporated and any recounts concluded. A decisive shift in late rural returns, sustained challenges to vote validity, or institutional delays extending into July could still alter the final margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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