Ongoing high-level talks between the Trump administration and Cuban officials represent the central driver of trader assessments for a potential U.S.-Cuba economic agreement. Since January 2026, executive orders have expanded sanctions targeting foreign oil shipments to Cuba and designated the island’s military-controlled economic entities, intensifying pressure on Havana’s energy and revenue sources. Cuban leaders have publicly acknowledged initial-stage negotiations focused on sectors such as energy, ports, tourism, and private investment, while signaling openness to limited reforms that could attract U.S. capital in exchange for targeted sanctions relief. These developments occur against Cuba’s severe economic strains, including fuel shortages and power disruptions, and follow the administration’s stated preference for economic liberalization over broader political changes. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and any further executive actions on sanctions could shape near-term momentum toward or away from a deal.