Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting model consensus point to a 33–34°C peak for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow and only modest moisture, anchoring the market’s slight edge to 34°C. Afternoon convective development over the urban heat island could limit radiative heating and cap the maximum at 33°C, while persistent high pressure and low relative humidity—typical for pre-monsoon May—would favor 35°C if skies remain mostly clear through peak insolation hours. Historical May maxima average near 34°C at the Science Garden station, with day-to-day variance of ±2°C driven primarily by cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated PAGASA briefings and real-time NAIA observations over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.