Météo-France forecasts and supporting ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS place Paris’s overnight minimum at exactly 6°C today, driven by clear skies that promote radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure ridge and light northerly flow advecting cooler continental air across the Île-de-France region. These conditions have held steady through the latest model runs, producing tight agreement around the 6°C threshold at Paris-Le Bourget, the official resolution station. Traders have therefore priced the outcome at 99.5 percent, reflecting high confidence in the current synoptic pattern. A late increase in low-level cloud cover or an unexpected wind shift could allow slightly greater cooling and push readings to 5°C or below, while any earlier arrival of warmer Atlantic air would lift the minimum above 6°C.