The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and adaptive measures amid sustained external military and economic pressure explain the overwhelming trader consensus against a collapse by June 30. Following leadership transitions after early 2026 strikes and the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, officials have prioritized economic resource allocation, maritime route controls in the Strait of Hormuz, and internal cohesion messaging to contain public discontent. Recent preparations for potential shortages and protest management, including support for affected sectors, underscore the regime's focus on short-term stability rather than vulnerability. While diplomatic talks with the United States remain stalled and could trigger further escalation, or renewed domestic unrest could emerge, current developments indicate the government retains sufficient control to avoid regime change within the narrow resolution window.