The Iranian regime has demonstrated institutional resilience since the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a short-lived conflict ending in an April ceasefire. Quick leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, IRGC consolidation of internal security forces, and ongoing military reconstitution during the current lull have limited domestic unrest and preserved core state structures. The May 15 extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire for another 45 days further signals de-escalation, reducing near-term triggers for regime collapse. With trader consensus at 95.5 percent against a fall by June 30, this reflects the regime’s rapid adaptation and absence of coordinated opposition momentum. Still, renewed escalation or sharp economic protests could introduce volatility before the deadline.