National Weather Service guidance and leading forecast models from the Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have converged on a daytime high near 76–78°F for Denver on May 16, anchoring the market-implied probability of 99.8% for the 76–77°F outcome. This strong consensus stems from stable high-pressure ridging over the Front Range, modest northerly flow, and typical May climatology where average highs reach about 74°F. Official observations at Buckley Space Force Base will determine resolution, with traders discounting minor model spread given consistent recent runs. Unexpected increases in afternoon cloud cover or a late steering-pattern shift could still push the peak into the 78–79°F range, though such changes remain low-probability based on current data.