Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover associated with a slow-moving weather system are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Tokyo, limiting radiative cooling and supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 21–22°C. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a low near 21–22°C on September 20, with northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and widespread precipitation suppressing the typical seasonal drop toward the long-term average low of about 19°C. These conditions align with trader consensus on the leading 22°C (42%) and 21°C (30.5%) outcomes, as the warm, moist air mass and ongoing showers reduce the likelihood of cooler readings below 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of the observation period will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 20?
22°C 41%
21°C 31%
20°C 18%
23°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
18%
21°C
31%
22°C
41%
23°C
12%
24°C
8%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
1%
22°C 41%
21°C 31%
20°C 18%
23°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$141 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$329 Vol.
1%
19°C
$306 Vol.
6%
20°C
$521 Vol.
18%
21°C
$1,102 Vol.
31%
22°C
$1,508 Vol.
41%
23°C
$776 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C or higher
$41 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover associated with a slow-moving weather system are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Tokyo, limiting radiative cooling and supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 21–22°C. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a low near 21–22°C on September 20, with northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and widespread precipitation suppressing the typical seasonal drop toward the long-term average low of about 19°C. These conditions align with trader consensus on the leading 22°C (42%) and 21°C (30.5%) outcomes, as the warm, moist air mass and ongoing showers reduce the likelihood of cooler readings below 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of the observation period will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,816Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover associated with a slow-moving weather system are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Tokyo, limiting radiative cooling and supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 21–22°C. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a low near 21–22°C on September 20, with northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and widespread precipitation suppressing the typical seasonal drop toward the long-term average low of about 19°C. These conditions align with trader consensus on the leading 22°C (42%) and 21°C (30.5%) outcomes, as the warm, moist air mass and ongoing showers reduce the likelihood of cooler readings below 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of the observation period will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,816Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover associated with a slow-moving weather system are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Tokyo, limiting radiative cooling and supporting market-implied probabilities centered on 21–22°C. Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a low near 21–22°C on September 20, with northerly winds, high humidity near 90%, and widespread precipitation suppressing the typical seasonal drop toward the long-term average low of about 19°C. These conditions align with trader consensus on the leading 22°C (42%) and 21°C (30.5%) outcomes, as the warm, moist air mass and ongoing showers reduce the likelihood of cooler readings below 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings ahead of the observation period will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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