Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the solidly Democratic CA-04, driven by their fundraising leads—Jones at $3.2 million and Thompson near $3 million—far outpacing fragmented Republicans like Raymond Riehle ($108,000). Thompson benefits from endorsements by Gov. Gavin Newsom, state Democrats, and congressional allies, plus recent Article One PAC support against self-funding venture capitalist Jones, who appeals to younger voters via his American Dream Institute. Early voting ballots mailed last week heighten focus, with no public polling; the top two will contest November's general in this D+8 district where Kamala Harris won 56%-41% in 2024.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$29,688 Vol.
2 giu 2026
Mike Thompson
98%
Eric Jones
90%
Heath Fulkerson
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
8%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
<1%
$29,688 Vol.
Mike Thompson
$7,192 Vol.
98%
Eric Jones
$4,925 Vol.
90%
Heath Fulkerson
$396 Vol.
11%
John Wesley Tyler
$873 Vol.
8%
Trevor Merrell
$9,664 Vol.
8%
Laurie MacKenzie
$710 Vol.
5%
Sharon Brown
$3,402 Vol.
2%
Mandy Ghusar
$2,525 Vol.
<1%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the solidly Democratic CA-04, driven by their fundraising leads—Jones at $3.2 million and Thompson near $3 million—far outpacing fragmented Republicans like Raymond Riehle ($108,000). Thompson benefits from endorsements by Gov. Gavin Newsom, state Democrats, and congressional allies, plus recent Article One PAC support against self-funding venture capitalist Jones, who appeals to younger voters via his American Dream Institute. Early voting ballots mailed last week heighten focus, with no public polling; the top two will contest November's general in this D+8 district where Kamala Harris won 56%-41% in 2024.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercato aperto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$29,688Data di fine
2 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the solidly Democratic CA-04, driven by their fundraising leads—Jones at $3.2 million and Thompson near $3 million—far outpacing fragmented Republicans like Raymond Riehle ($108,000). Thompson benefits from endorsements by Gov. Gavin Newsom, state Democrats, and congressional allies, plus recent Article One PAC support against self-funding venture capitalist Jones, who appeals to younger voters via his American Dream Institute. Early voting ballots mailed last week heighten focus, with no public polling; the top two will contest November's general in this D+8 district where Kamala Harris won 56%-41% in 2024.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,688Data di fine
2 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's June 2 top-two primary in the solidly Democratic CA-04, driven by their fundraising leads—Jones at $3.2 million and Thompson near $3 million—far outpacing fragmented Republicans like Raymond Riehle ($108,000). Thompson benefits from endorsements by Gov. Gavin Newsom, state Democrats, and congressional allies, plus recent Article One PAC support against self-funding venture capitalist Jones, who appeals to younger voters via his American Dream Institute. Early voting ballots mailed last week heighten focus, with no public polling; the top two will contest November's general in this D+8 district where Kamala Harris won 56%-41% in 2024.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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