Recent forecast guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models points to a warm, high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula, with light southerly flow advecting subtropical air toward Busan’s coastal location. This setup, combined with mostly clear skies and minimal cloud cover expected through midday on May 17, favors peak temperatures near 31–32 °C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Coastal moderation from the East Sea limits extremes, while daytime solar heating and low humidity allow slight upward revisions in afternoon readings; small shifts in wind speed or marine layer timing could tip the maximum between 30 °C and 32 °C. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final resolution data for this high-uncertainty day.