Latest Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts and model consensus position Karachi’s May 16 peak near 35–36 °C, reflecting continental heating under a strong high-pressure ridge combined with moderate humidity of 40–70 % that restricts overnight cooling yet allows peak solar heating. Persistent hot, dry air advection from the northwest is tempered by the timing of the Arabian Sea breeze, which recent observations indicate will arrive by early afternoon and limit further intensification. Ensemble guidance shows only 1–2 °C spread, with the strongest runs favoring exactly 35 °C at the official airport station. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 35 °C, while the 21 % chance for 37 °C or higher hinges on any delay in the sea breeze or localized urban heat effects. Hourly PMD updates through the afternoon remain the key near-term catalyst.