The market-implied probability of 100% for a highest temperature of 41°C or below in Lucknow on May 16 reflects the India Meteorological Department’s official forecast of a maximum around 41°C, backed by recent observations showing daily highs of 37–39°C—well below seasonal norms. These subdued readings stem from persistent cloud cover and moisture influx that have limited daytime heating across northern India, consistent with current model consensus from the IMD and global ensembles. Historical May averages for Lucknow hover near 39–40°C, so today’s conditions represent a notable cool anomaly. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing and intensified insolation push readings above the threshold before official verification closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 16?
41°C or below 100.0%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$27,411 Vol.
$27,411 Vol.
16 mag 2026
41°C or below
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C
No
47°C
No
48°C
No
49°C
No
50°C
No
51°C or higher
No
41°C or below 100.0%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$27,411 Vol.
$27,411 Vol.
16 mag 2026
41°C or below
$5,576 Vol.
Yes
42°C
$3,198 Vol.
No
43°C
$4,526 Vol.
No
44°C
$1,598 Vol.
No
45°C
$3,732 Vol.
No
46°C
$3,075 Vol.
No
47°C
$757 Vol.
No
48°C
$935 Vol.
No
49°C
$1,813 Vol.
No
50°C
$776 Vol.
No
51°C or higher
$1,424 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied probability of 100% for a highest temperature of 41°C or below in Lucknow on May 16 reflects the India Meteorological Department’s official forecast of a maximum around 41°C, backed by recent observations showing daily highs of 37–39°C—well below seasonal norms. These subdued readings stem from persistent cloud cover and moisture influx that have limited daytime heating across northern India, consistent with current model consensus from the IMD and global ensembles. Historical May averages for Lucknow hover near 39–40°C, so today’s conditions represent a notable cool anomaly. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing and intensified insolation push readings above the threshold before official verification closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$27,411Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied probability of 100% for a highest temperature of 41°C or below in Lucknow on May 16 reflects the India Meteorological Department’s official forecast of a maximum around 41°C, backed by recent observations showing daily highs of 37–39°C—well below seasonal norms. These subdued readings stem from persistent cloud cover and moisture influx that have limited daytime heating across northern India, consistent with current model consensus from the IMD and global ensembles. Historical May averages for Lucknow hover near 39–40°C, so today’s conditions represent a notable cool anomaly. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing and intensified insolation push readings above the threshold before official verification closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$27,411Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:22 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The market-implied probability of 100% for a highest temperature of 41°C or below in Lucknow on May 16 reflects the India Meteorological Department’s official forecast of a maximum around 41°C, backed by recent observations showing daily highs of 37–39°C—well below seasonal norms. These subdued readings stem from persistent cloud cover and moisture influx that have limited daytime heating across northern India, consistent with current model consensus from the IMD and global ensembles. Historical May averages for Lucknow hover near 39–40°C, so today’s conditions represent a notable cool anomaly. The outcome could shift only if rapid clearing and intensified insolation push readings above the threshold before official verification closes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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