National Weather Service ensemble guidance and recent GFS-ECMWF model runs project a daytime high near 77°F for New York City on May 16 under a building high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and light southerly flow. This consensus positions the 76-77°F outcome as the clear market leader at 87.5% implied probability. The ridge suppresses cloud cover and moisture advection, limiting upward temperature deviations while historical May climatology for the region supports highs in the mid-70s as typical under similar synoptic patterns. Minor model spread accounts for the small probabilities assigned to 78-79°F and warmer bins, with any late-day mixing or localized heating unlikely to push readings into those ranges based on current observational trends.