Ongoing regional tensions stemming from U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets that began February 28, 2026, continue to shape expectations around Iran's airspace policy. A partial reopening of eastern routes and limited airport operations occurred in late April following an April 7 ceasefire phase, yet airlines have maintained rerouting and EASA warnings remain in effect through late May. Recent developments, including retaliatory actions and sustained military presence in the Persian Gulf, have prompted traders to assess renewed closure risks before the end of the month. Key factors include potential escalation from proxy engagements, diplomatic negotiations, or new missile activity that could trigger broad commercial flight suspensions across Tehran FIR. Structural barriers such as international NOTAMs and airline avoidance patterns reinforce caution, though de-escalation signals could stabilize operations in the near term.

May 10 2026

Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions

May 15 jumps to 14%5%

Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.

May 9 2026

Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus

May 15 plunges to 4%28%

On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.