Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 inflicted extensive damage on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, according to assessments from the Institute for Science and International Security and US intelligence. These operations extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months as of early May 2026, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or testing activities reported by the IAEA amid restricted inspector access. Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks centered on stockpile management and program limits, combined with regime constraints and the absence of detected test preparations, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear detonation remains unlikely before the end of 2026. Late covert advances or negotiation breakdowns could still alter this trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$192,428 Vol.
$192,428 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 inflicted extensive damage on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, according to assessments from the Institute for Science and International Security and US intelligence. These operations extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months as of early May 2026, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or testing activities reported by the IAEA amid restricted inspector access. Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks centered on stockpile management and program limits, combined with regime constraints and the absence of detected test preparations, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear detonation remains unlikely before the end of 2026. Late covert advances or negotiation breakdowns could still alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$192,428Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 inflicted extensive damage on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, according to assessments from the Institute for Science and International Security and US intelligence. These operations extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months as of early May 2026, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or testing activities reported by the IAEA amid restricted inspector access. Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks centered on stockpile management and program limits, combined with regime constraints and the absence of detected test preparations, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear detonation remains unlikely before the end of 2026. Late covert advances or negotiation breakdowns could still alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$192,428Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-April 2026 inflicted extensive damage on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, according to assessments from the Institute for Science and International Security and US intelligence. These operations extended Iran's estimated timeline to produce a nuclear weapon to nine to twelve months as of early May 2026, with no verified resumption of high-level enrichment or testing activities reported by the IAEA amid restricted inspector access. Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks centered on stockpile management and program limits, combined with regime constraints and the absence of detected test preparations, underpin trader expectations that a nuclear detonation remains unlikely before the end of 2026. Late covert advances or negotiation breakdowns could still alter this trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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