Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related sites, while IAEA inspectors lost access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development amid slowed rebuilding efforts documented by satellite imagery and expert assessments. These confirmed setbacks create substantial technical and detection barriers to any nuclear test by the end of 2026. Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects this degraded capacity, though undetected reconstruction or leadership shifts could still alter timelines before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
5% probabilità
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related sites, while IAEA inspectors lost access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development amid slowed rebuilding efforts documented by satellite imagery and expert assessments. These confirmed setbacks create substantial technical and detection barriers to any nuclear test by the end of 2026. Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects this degraded capacity, though undetected reconstruction or leadership shifts could still alter timelines before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,407Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related sites, while IAEA inspectors lost access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development amid slowed rebuilding efforts documented by satellite imagery and expert assessments. These confirmed setbacks create substantial technical and detection barriers to any nuclear test by the end of 2026. Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects this degraded capacity, though undetected reconstruction or leadership shifts could still alter timelines before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,407Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related sites, while IAEA inspectors lost access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development amid slowed rebuilding efforts documented by satellite imagery and expert assessments. These confirmed setbacks create substantial technical and detection barriers to any nuclear test by the end of 2026. Trader consensus on "No" at 95.5% reflects this degraded capacity, though undetected reconstruction or leadership shifts could still alter timelines before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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