Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the central driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March for limited Israeli-carrier operations under capacity caps and ongoing security reviews, while extending wartime NOTAM restrictions through mid-April pending developments. Hezbollah rocket activity from Lebanon and regional diplomatic signals continue to factor into official threat assessments. Recent plans by European carriers such as Lufthansa to resume flights in June have tempered immediate risks, aligning with current market-implied probabilities around 30% for closure by late May. Any escalation in missile threats or new security directives could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$879,935 Vol.
31 mag 2026
May 31
31%
30 giugno
50%
$879,935 Vol.
May 31
$377,328 Vol.
31%
30 giugno
$8,017 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the central driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March for limited Israeli-carrier operations under capacity caps and ongoing security reviews, while extending wartime NOTAM restrictions through mid-April pending developments. Hezbollah rocket activity from Lebanon and regional diplomatic signals continue to factor into official threat assessments. Recent plans by European carriers such as Lufthansa to resume flights in June have tempered immediate risks, aligning with current market-implied probabilities around 30% for closure by late May. Any escalation in missile threats or new security directives could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$879,935Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the central driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March for limited Israeli-carrier operations under capacity caps and ongoing security reviews, while extending wartime NOTAM restrictions through mid-April pending developments. Hezbollah rocket activity from Lebanon and regional diplomatic signals continue to factor into official threat assessments. Recent plans by European carriers such as Lufthansa to resume flights in June have tempered immediate risks, aligning with current market-implied probabilities around 30% for closure by late May. Any escalation in missile threats or new security directives could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$879,935Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions with Iran, stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations, remain the central driver of trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Authorities partially reopened Ben Gurion Airport in March for limited Israeli-carrier operations under capacity caps and ongoing security reviews, while extending wartime NOTAM restrictions through mid-April pending developments. Hezbollah rocket activity from Lebanon and regional diplomatic signals continue to factor into official threat assessments. Recent plans by European carriers such as Lufthansa to resume flights in June have tempered immediate risks, aligning with current market-implied probabilities around 30% for closure by late May. Any escalation in missile threats or new security directives could still shift outcomes before the resolution date.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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