Recent forecasts from global models including ECMWF and GFS consensus place Amsterdam's overnight low for August 27 near 16–17°C, consistent with the market's top-implied probabilities. Persistent cloud cover and limited radiative cooling overnight, combined with a shift to southerly flow, are limiting temperature drops below recent values, while the month's above-average warmth (departures of +1–2°C) provides a warmer baseline than the long-term 12–13°C climatological minimum. Hourly guidance shows stabilization around 15–17°C in the early morning hours before any daytime rebound, with minor spread arising from variable precipitation timing and wind shifts. Traders appear to weight these short-range model outputs heavily, as resolution hinges on official KNMI observations at the primary station.