Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts indicate mostly clear skies and light winds overnight across Seoul, driving strong radiational cooling that aligns with the market’s near-certain 14 °C low. This outcome matches mid-May climatology, where calm high-pressure patterns routinely produce overnight minima near 14 °C, and ensemble model guidance from nearby stations reinforces the same narrow range. Traders have priced this consensus at essentially 100 percent implied probability because official observations are expected to resolve within that exact bracket. Any late-night increase in cloud cover or wind speed could trap heat and nudge the recorded minimum upward toward 15 °C, representing the primary realistic scenario that would alter resolution.