Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs place Tokyo’s May 18 overnight low near 18–19 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow, producing modest radiative cooling after a daytime high around 27 °C. This consensus explains why the market prices 18 °C and 19 °C as the top two outcomes with nearly identical probabilities, while 17 °C remains competitive because ensemble members still show slight variability in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical mid-May climatology supports lows in the 15–18 °C range, so current guidance sits slightly above average and limits the chance of colder outcomes below 16 °C to under 3 %. The next JMA and ECMWF updates, due within 24 hours, will determine whether the narrow spread between 17 °C and 19 °C tightens or shifts the implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 18 maggio?
19°C 30%
18°C 27%
17°C 25%
20°C 7.6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
13°C o inferiore
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
25%
18°C
31%
19°C
30%
20°C
8%
21°C
6%
22°C
1%
23°C o superiore
<1%
19°C 30%
18°C 27%
17°C 25%
20°C 7.6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
13°C o inferiore
$245 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$274 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$336 Vol.
1%
16°C
$49 Vol.
1%
17°C
$45 Vol.
25%
18°C
$250 Vol.
31%
19°C
$94 Vol.
30%
20°C
$85 Vol.
8%
21°C
$179 Vol.
6%
22°C
$423 Vol.
1%
23°C o superiore
$1,880 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs place Tokyo’s May 18 overnight low near 18–19 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow, producing modest radiative cooling after a daytime high around 27 °C. This consensus explains why the market prices 18 °C and 19 °C as the top two outcomes with nearly identical probabilities, while 17 °C remains competitive because ensemble members still show slight variability in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical mid-May climatology supports lows in the 15–18 °C range, so current guidance sits slightly above average and limits the chance of colder outcomes below 16 °C to under 3 %. The next JMA and ECMWF updates, due within 24 hours, will determine whether the narrow spread between 17 °C and 19 °C tightens or shifts the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,860Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs place Tokyo’s May 18 overnight low near 18–19 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow, producing modest radiative cooling after a daytime high around 27 °C. This consensus explains why the market prices 18 °C and 19 °C as the top two outcomes with nearly identical probabilities, while 17 °C remains competitive because ensemble members still show slight variability in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical mid-May climatology supports lows in the 15–18 °C range, so current guidance sits slightly above average and limits the chance of colder outcomes below 16 °C to under 3 %. The next JMA and ECMWF updates, due within 24 hours, will determine whether the narrow spread between 17 °C and 19 °C tightens or shifts the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,860Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency model runs place Tokyo’s May 18 overnight low near 18–19 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly flow, producing modest radiative cooling after a daytime high around 27 °C. This consensus explains why the market prices 18 °C and 19 °C as the top two outcomes with nearly identical probabilities, while 17 °C remains competitive because ensemble members still show slight variability in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed. Historical mid-May climatology supports lows in the 15–18 °C range, so current guidance sits slightly above average and limits the chance of colder outcomes below 16 °C to under 3 %. The next JMA and ECMWF updates, due within 24 hours, will determine whether the narrow spread between 17 °C and 19 °C tightens or shifts the implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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