The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with multi-model ensembles showing rapid warming toward +1.5°C Niño 3.4 indices by May–July, is the dominant factor behind trader consensus for a 1.10–1.14°C May 2026 global temperature anomaly. Early May observations already record record-high Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures 1.13°C above the 1979–2000 baseline, consistent with the shift from neutral to El Niño conditions and the long-term warming trend that kept 2025 at 1.19°C annually. Official seasonal outlooks from the WMO and NOAA reinforce above-normal land and ocean temperatures across most regions, while May’s position early in the event limits the monthly boost relative to later peaks. Updated forecast runs and observational data releases through June will provide the next clear signals for any revision in these market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,551 Vol.
$58,551 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,551 Vol.
$58,551 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,916 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,772 Vol.
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with multi-model ensembles showing rapid warming toward +1.5°C Niño 3.4 indices by May–July, is the dominant factor behind trader consensus for a 1.10–1.14°C May 2026 global temperature anomaly. Early May observations already record record-high Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures 1.13°C above the 1979–2000 baseline, consistent with the shift from neutral to El Niño conditions and the long-term warming trend that kept 2025 at 1.19°C annually. Official seasonal outlooks from the WMO and NOAA reinforce above-normal land and ocean temperatures across most regions, while May’s position early in the event limits the monthly boost relative to later peaks. Updated forecast runs and observational data releases through June will provide the next clear signals for any revision in these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$58,551Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with multi-model ensembles showing rapid warming toward +1.5°C Niño 3.4 indices by May–July, is the dominant factor behind trader consensus for a 1.10–1.14°C May 2026 global temperature anomaly. Early May observations already record record-high Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures 1.13°C above the 1979–2000 baseline, consistent with the shift from neutral to El Niño conditions and the long-term warming trend that kept 2025 at 1.19°C annually. Official seasonal outlooks from the WMO and NOAA reinforce above-normal land and ocean temperatures across most regions, while May’s position early in the event limits the monthly boost relative to later peaks. Updated forecast runs and observational data releases through June will provide the next clear signals for any revision in these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$58,551Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with multi-model ensembles showing rapid warming toward +1.5°C Niño 3.4 indices by May–July, is the dominant factor behind trader consensus for a 1.10–1.14°C May 2026 global temperature anomaly. Early May observations already record record-high Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures 1.13°C above the 1979–2000 baseline, consistent with the shift from neutral to El Niño conditions and the long-term warming trend that kept 2025 at 1.19°C annually. Official seasonal outlooks from the WMO and NOAA reinforce above-normal land and ocean temperatures across most regions, while May’s position early in the event limits the monthly boost relative to later peaks. Updated forecast runs and observational data releases through June will provide the next clear signals for any revision in these market-implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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