Recent observational records show global surface temperatures in early 2026 running near 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with March and April anomalies reflecting residual warmth from the prior El Niño and a developing warm phase now strengthening in the tropical Pacific. Multi-model forecasts for May–July 2026 indicate near-global above-normal land temperatures, supporting trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome for the monthly anomaly. Seasonal outlooks emphasize consistent model agreement on this range amid typical spring variability, while narrower higher bins remain less likely without accelerated intensification. Official updates from NOAA and Copernicus expected later in May will refine these estimates and may shift positioning if early-month data deviate from ensemble means.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,198 Vol.
$58,198 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 13%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,198 Vol.
$58,198 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,916 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,419 Vol.
13%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational records show global surface temperatures in early 2026 running near 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with March and April anomalies reflecting residual warmth from the prior El Niño and a developing warm phase now strengthening in the tropical Pacific. Multi-model forecasts for May–July 2026 indicate near-global above-normal land temperatures, supporting trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome for the monthly anomaly. Seasonal outlooks emphasize consistent model agreement on this range amid typical spring variability, while narrower higher bins remain less likely without accelerated intensification. Official updates from NOAA and Copernicus expected later in May will refine these estimates and may shift positioning if early-month data deviate from ensemble means.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$58,198Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational records show global surface temperatures in early 2026 running near 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with March and April anomalies reflecting residual warmth from the prior El Niño and a developing warm phase now strengthening in the tropical Pacific. Multi-model forecasts for May–July 2026 indicate near-global above-normal land temperatures, supporting trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome for the monthly anomaly. Seasonal outlooks emphasize consistent model agreement on this range amid typical spring variability, while narrower higher bins remain less likely without accelerated intensification. Official updates from NOAA and Copernicus expected later in May will refine these estimates and may shift positioning if early-month data deviate from ensemble means.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$58,198Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational records show global surface temperatures in early 2026 running near 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, with March and April anomalies reflecting residual warmth from the prior El Niño and a developing warm phase now strengthening in the tropical Pacific. Multi-model forecasts for May–July 2026 indicate near-global above-normal land temperatures, supporting trader consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the most probable outcome for the monthly anomaly. Seasonal outlooks emphasize consistent model agreement on this range amid typical spring variability, while narrower higher bins remain less likely without accelerated intensification. Official updates from NOAA and Copernicus expected later in May will refine these estimates and may shift positioning if early-month data deviate from ensemble means.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti