Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, followed by spring 2026 extents near or at seasonal lows for the satellite era, has strengthened trader consensus around a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This positioning reflects the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification and reduced winter ice volume, as tracked by NSIDC and USNIC data, with 2025's 4.86 million square kilometer minimum providing a recent benchmark. Model consensus and current observational trends favor continued melt through the summer melt season, though June Sea Ice Outlook updates and any shifts in atmospheric patterns could alter outcomes before the annual minimum is reached.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEstensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?
<4 milioni di km² 55%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.9%
4,0-4,2 mln km² 9.3%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 8.2%
$48,580 Vol.
$48,580 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
55%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
9%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
15%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
8%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
6%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
2%
5 mln+ kmq
2%
<4 milioni di km² 55%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq 14.9%
4,0-4,2 mln km² 9.3%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq 8.2%
$48,580 Vol.
$48,580 Vol.
1 ott 2026
<4 milioni di km²
$25,113 Vol.
55%
4,0-4,2 mln km²
$3,431 Vol.
9%
4,2-4,4 mln kmq
$1,313 Vol.
15%
4,4-4,6 mln kmq
$1,381 Vol.
8%
4,6-4,8 mln kmq
$2,948 Vol.
6%
4,8-5 milioni kmq
$1,199 Vol.
2%
5 mln+ kmq
$13,195 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, followed by spring 2026 extents near or at seasonal lows for the satellite era, has strengthened trader consensus around a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This positioning reflects the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification and reduced winter ice volume, as tracked by NSIDC and USNIC data, with 2025's 4.86 million square kilometer minimum providing a recent benchmark. Model consensus and current observational trends favor continued melt through the summer melt season, though June Sea Ice Outlook updates and any shifts in atmospheric patterns could alter outcomes before the annual minimum is reached.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$48,580Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, followed by spring 2026 extents near or at seasonal lows for the satellite era, has strengthened trader consensus around a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This positioning reflects the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification and reduced winter ice volume, as tracked by NSIDC and USNIC data, with 2025's 4.86 million square kilometer minimum providing a recent benchmark. Model consensus and current observational trends favor continued melt through the summer melt season, though June Sea Ice Outlook updates and any shifts in atmospheric patterns could alter outcomes before the annual minimum is reached.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,580Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers in March 2026, followed by spring 2026 extents near or at seasonal lows for the satellite era, has strengthened trader consensus around a September minimum below 4 million square kilometers. This positioning reflects the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification and reduced winter ice volume, as tracked by NSIDC and USNIC data, with 2025's 4.86 million square kilometer minimum providing a recent benchmark. Model consensus and current observational trends favor continued melt through the summer melt season, though June Sea Ice Outlook updates and any shifts in atmospheric patterns could alter outcomes before the annual minimum is reached.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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