Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality continue to stall progress toward any comprehensive agreement. The three-day U.S.-brokered ceasefire from May 9-11, which included a prisoner exchange, produced no lasting momentum, with both sides accusing each other of violations and Russian officials stating that full negotiations remain on hold pending Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas and other areas. Kremlin statements emphasize the complexity of outstanding issues, while U.S.-led talks show incremental prisoner and humanitarian discussions but little movement on core political terms. With the June 30 resolution date approaching and no breakthrough in sight, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A sudden shift in positions by either government or major diplomatic concessions could still alter the trajectory before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$439,195 Vol.
$439,195 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$439,195 Vol.
$439,195 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality continue to stall progress toward any comprehensive agreement. The three-day U.S.-brokered ceasefire from May 9-11, which included a prisoner exchange, produced no lasting momentum, with both sides accusing each other of violations and Russian officials stating that full negotiations remain on hold pending Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas and other areas. Kremlin statements emphasize the complexity of outstanding issues, while U.S.-led talks show incremental prisoner and humanitarian discussions but little movement on core political terms. With the June 30 resolution date approaching and no breakthrough in sight, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A sudden shift in positions by either government or major diplomatic concessions could still alter the trajectory before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$439,195Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality continue to stall progress toward any comprehensive agreement. The three-day U.S.-brokered ceasefire from May 9-11, which included a prisoner exchange, produced no lasting momentum, with both sides accusing each other of violations and Russian officials stating that full negotiations remain on hold pending Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas and other areas. Kremlin statements emphasize the complexity of outstanding issues, while U.S.-led talks show incremental prisoner and humanitarian discussions but little movement on core political terms. With the June 30 resolution date approaching and no breakthrough in sight, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A sudden shift in positions by either government or major diplomatic concessions could still alter the trajectory before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$439,258Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent disagreements over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality continue to stall progress toward any comprehensive agreement. The three-day U.S.-brokered ceasefire from May 9-11, which included a prisoner exchange, produced no lasting momentum, with both sides accusing each other of violations and Russian officials stating that full negotiations remain on hold pending Ukrainian withdrawals from Donbas and other areas. Kremlin statements emphasize the complexity of outstanding issues, while U.S.-led talks show incremental prisoner and humanitarian discussions but little movement on core political terms. With the June 30 resolution date approaching and no breakthrough in sight, trader consensus reflects these structural barriers. A sudden shift in positions by either government or major diplomatic concessions could still alter the trajectory before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti