Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$59,226 Vol.
$59,226 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$59,226 Vol.
$59,226 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$59,226Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$59,226Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China trade frameworks, including the November 2025 deal and May 2026 establishment of bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment during the Trump-Xi summit, underpin the 88.5% trader consensus on a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026. These steps extended reciprocal tariff suspensions, committed China to substantial U.S. agricultural purchases, and created formal mechanisms for negotiating further reciprocal reductions on specific goods. Ongoing working-level talks and public comment processes on additional cuts have reinforced expectations of phased accommodation before year-end. While underlying tensions persist, the pattern of de-escalation and institutional continuity supports the elevated implied probability reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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