**Ongoing diplomatic and institutional mechanisms from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur/Busan framework and May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit continue to support expectations for a tariff agreement or extension by year-end.** The U.S.-China Board of Trade, established to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods each way, has advanced through public comment periods and consultations, alongside parallel investment board talks. Both sides have maintained cumulative tariff rates near agreed truce ceilings (around 20% effective on many lines) despite targeted additions like the July 2026 Section 301 forced-labor levy and reported August overcapacity measures, while China has extended select exclusions and purchase commitments (e.g., Boeing aircraft and agricultural products) through late 2026. A planned September 2026 summit in Washington is positioned to address truce expiration on November 10, 2026, with officials signaling room for further managed adjustments rather than escalation. Trader consensus at 89% reflects these structured channels and incentives for stability ahead of the December 31 resolution window, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any last-minute shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% probabilità
$239,731 Vol.
$239,731 Vol.
31 dic 2026
89% probabilità
$239,731 Vol.
$239,731 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing diplomatic and institutional mechanisms from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur/Busan framework and May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit continue to support expectations for a tariff agreement or extension by year-end.**
The U.S.-China Board of Trade, established to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods each way, has advanced through public comment periods and consultations, alongside parallel investment board talks. Both sides have maintained cumulative tariff rates near agreed truce ceilings (around 20% effective on many lines) despite targeted additions like the July 2026 Section 301 forced-labor levy and reported August overcapacity measures, while China has extended select exclusions and purchase commitments (e.g., Boeing aircraft and agricultural products) through late 2026. A planned September 2026 summit in Washington is positioned to address truce expiration on November 10, 2026, with officials signaling room for further managed adjustments rather than escalation. Trader consensus at 89% reflects these structured channels and incentives for stability ahead of the December 31 resolution window, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$239,731Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing diplomatic and institutional mechanisms from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur/Busan framework and May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit continue to support expectations for a tariff agreement or extension by year-end.**
The U.S.-China Board of Trade, established to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods each way, has advanced through public comment periods and consultations, alongside parallel investment board talks. Both sides have maintained cumulative tariff rates near agreed truce ceilings (around 20% effective on many lines) despite targeted additions like the July 2026 Section 301 forced-labor levy and reported August overcapacity measures, while China has extended select exclusions and purchase commitments (e.g., Boeing aircraft and agricultural products) through late 2026. A planned September 2026 summit in Washington is positioned to address truce expiration on November 10, 2026, with officials signaling room for further managed adjustments rather than escalation. Trader consensus at 89% reflects these structured channels and incentives for stability ahead of the December 31 resolution window, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$239,731Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing diplomatic and institutional mechanisms from the 2025 Kuala Lumpur/Busan framework and May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit continue to support expectations for a tariff agreement or extension by year-end.** The U.S.-China Board of Trade, established to negotiate reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods each way, has advanced through public comment periods and consultations, alongside parallel investment board talks. Both sides have maintained cumulative tariff rates near agreed truce ceilings (around 20% effective on many lines) despite targeted additions like the July 2026 Section 301 forced-labor levy and reported August overcapacity measures, while China has extended select exclusions and purchase commitments (e.g., Boeing aircraft and agricultural products) through late 2026. A planned September 2026 summit in Washington is positioned to address truce expiration on November 10, 2026, with officials signaling room for further managed adjustments rather than escalation. Trader consensus at 89% reflects these structured channels and incentives for stability ahead of the December 31 resolution window, though outcomes remain subject to negotiation details and any last-minute shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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