Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on mediated negotiations to end the 2026 conflict, with key sticking points including Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. The most recent round of direct talks, held in Islamabad in mid-April under Pakistani mediation and involving US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, concluded without agreement after extended sessions. Subsequent proposals for follow-up meetings have been delayed amid backchannel exchanges and a US offer of a one-page memorandum of understanding that could open a 30-day framework for broader discussions. Iran has signaled readiness for resumed diplomacy but insists on confirmed ceasefire guarantees and has set an informal end-of-June timeline for progress. These developments, alongside ongoing tensions and potential involvement from additional mediators, shape trader assessments of likely attendees and timing for any next session.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$1,184,874 Vol.
Donald Trump
4%
Marco Rubio
9%
J.D. Vance
23%
Jared Kushner
34%
Steve Witkoff
45%
$1,184,874 Vol.
Donald Trump
4%
Marco Rubio
9%
J.D. Vance
23%
Jared Kushner
34%
Steve Witkoff
45%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting.
If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on mediated negotiations to end the 2026 conflict, with key sticking points including Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and access to the Strait of Hormuz. The most recent round of direct talks, held in Islamabad in mid-April under Pakistani mediation and involving US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, concluded without agreement after extended sessions. Subsequent proposals for follow-up meetings have been delayed amid backchannel exchanges and a US offer of a one-page memorandum of understanding that could open a 30-day framework for broader discussions. Iran has signaled readiness for resumed diplomacy but insists on confirmed ceasefire guarantees and has set an informal end-of-June timeline for progress. These developments, alongside ongoing tensions and potential involvement from additional mediators, shape trader assessments of likely attendees and timing for any next session.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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