Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's status as one of the nation's most reliably Republican strongholds—rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report—with a partisan voting index reflecting overwhelming GOP dominance. Incumbent Robert Aderholt, a veteran congressman since 1997 who easily won reelection unopposed in 2024, qualified for the 2026 race in January and faces only token opposition in the May 19 Republican primary from challenger Tommy Barnes. Democrats lack a prominent contender, underscoring historical non-competitiveness. Upsets could arise from a primary surprise, unforeseen scandal, or extreme national midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural north Alabama battleground, though such shifts remain low-probability given entrenched incumbency and base rates for safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,341 Vol.
$27,341 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$27,341 Vol.
$27,341 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$13,104 Vol.
93%
民主党
$14,237 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's status as one of the nation's most reliably Republican strongholds—rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report—with a partisan voting index reflecting overwhelming GOP dominance. Incumbent Robert Aderholt, a veteran congressman since 1997 who easily won reelection unopposed in 2024, qualified for the 2026 race in January and faces only token opposition in the May 19 Republican primary from challenger Tommy Barnes. Democrats lack a prominent contender, underscoring historical non-competitiveness. Upsets could arise from a primary surprise, unforeseen scandal, or extreme national midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural north Alabama battleground, though such shifts remain low-probability given entrenched incumbency and base rates for safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$27,341終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's status as one of the nation's most reliably Republican strongholds—rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report—with a partisan voting index reflecting overwhelming GOP dominance. Incumbent Robert Aderholt, a veteran congressman since 1997 who easily won reelection unopposed in 2024, qualified for the 2026 race in January and faces only token opposition in the May 19 Republican primary from challenger Tommy Barnes. Democrats lack a prominent contender, underscoring historical non-competitiveness. Upsets could arise from a primary surprise, unforeseen scandal, or extreme national midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural north Alabama battleground, though such shifts remain low-probability given entrenched incumbency and base rates for safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,341終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 92.5% implied probability for Alabama's 4th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's status as one of the nation's most reliably Republican strongholds—rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report—with a partisan voting index reflecting overwhelming GOP dominance. Incumbent Robert Aderholt, a veteran congressman since 1997 who easily won reelection unopposed in 2024, qualified for the 2026 race in January and faces only token opposition in the May 19 Republican primary from challenger Tommy Barnes. Democrats lack a prominent contender, underscoring historical non-competitiveness. Upsets could arise from a primary surprise, unforeseen scandal, or extreme national midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural north Alabama battleground, though such shifts remain low-probability given entrenched incumbency and base rates for safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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