**The Bank of Russia’s July 24 decision to cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% set the stage for September expectations, with the central bank explicitly signaling a more gradual easing path.** Officials cited one-off fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions that lifted near-term inflation expectations, alongside a more expansionary fiscal stance and temporary capacity constraints that outweighed underlying disinflationary trends near 4–5% annualized. The updated baseline forecast points to an average key rate of 14.5–14.6% for 2026 and annual inflation of 6.0–7.0%, implying limited room for further reductions before year-end. Moderate economic growth, decelerating lending, and softer business demand expectations have reinforced trader caution, supporting the 63% probability of no change at the September 11 meeting while leaving scope for a modest cut if incoming data confirm sustained cooling in price pressures. An increase remains remote given the ongoing easing cycle from the prior 21% peak.