Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Mato Grosso for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by recent state polls showing him at 50% or higher against Lula in the low-to-mid 20s. Mato Grosso’s agricultural economy and conservative voter base have driven consistent support for the PL candidate, with his margin expanding in surveys from late August into September. High federal government disapproval in the state and limited inroads by other names reinforce trader consensus around his frontrunner status. A late consolidation of anti-Bolsonaro votes or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided or null voters remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
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