Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a strong position in the solidly Democratic CA-24 district, where the partisan voter index favors his party by double digits. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Carbajal at 54% and Republican Bob Smith at 36%, established the general election matchup ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader consensus on victory margins remains balanced across brackets because the district's coastal and Central Coast composition produces reliable Democratic performance without extensive recent district-specific polling or high-profile campaign events. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major national or local catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities clustered, though shifts in turnout patterns or broader midterm dynamics could widen or narrow the final spread before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党 40〜45％ 42%
民主党 5〜15％ 40%
民主党 45％以上 39%
民主党 30〜35％ 37%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 45％以上
39%
民主党 40〜45％
42%
民主党 35-40%
36%
民主党 30〜35％
37%
民主党 25〜30%
36%
民主党 20～25%
36%
民主党 15〜20％
36%
民主党 5〜15％
40%
民主党 0〜5％
36%
共和党の勝利
36%
民主党 40〜45％ 42%
民主党 5〜15％ 40%
民主党 45％以上 39%
民主党 30〜35％ 37%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党 45％以上
$0 Vol.
39%
民主党 40〜45％
$0 Vol.
42%
民主党 35-40%
$0 Vol.
36%
民主党 30〜35％
$0 Vol.
37%
民主党 25〜30%
$0 Vol.
36%
民主党 20～25%
$0 Vol.
36%
民主党 15〜20％
$0 Vol.
36%
民主党 5〜15％
$0 Vol.
40%
民主党 0〜5％
$0 Vol.
36%
共和党の勝利
$0 Vol.
36%
The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a strong position in the solidly Democratic CA-24 district, where the partisan voter index favors his party by double digits. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Carbajal at 54% and Republican Bob Smith at 36%, established the general election matchup ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader consensus on victory margins remains balanced across brackets because the district's coastal and Central Coast composition produces reliable Democratic performance without extensive recent district-specific polling or high-profile campaign events. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major national or local catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities clustered, though shifts in turnout patterns or broader midterm dynamics could widen or narrow the final spread before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a strong position in the solidly Democratic CA-24 district, where the partisan voter index favors his party by double digits. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Carbajal at 54% and Republican Bob Smith at 36%, established the general election matchup ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader consensus on victory margins remains balanced across brackets because the district's coastal and Central Coast composition produces reliable Democratic performance without extensive recent district-specific polling or high-profile campaign events. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major national or local catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities clustered, though shifts in turnout patterns or broader midterm dynamics could widen or narrow the final spread before Election Day.
The 2026 CA-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$0終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 3:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a strong position in the solidly Democratic CA-24 district, where the partisan voter index favors his party by double digits. The June 2026 top-two primary results, with Carbajal at 54% and Republican Bob Smith at 36%, established the general election matchup ahead of the November 3 vote. Trader consensus on victory margins remains balanced across brackets because the district's coastal and Central Coast composition produces reliable Democratic performance without extensive recent district-specific polling or high-profile campaign events. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major national or local catalysts since the primary have kept probabilities clustered, though shifts in turnout patterns or broader midterm dynamics could widen or narrow the final spread before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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