Trader consensus assigning a 97.2% implied probability to no Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. Official WHO and CDC data show over 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across seven northeastern DRC provinces by mid-September, with limited linked cases in Uganda and one imported case in France, but no evidence of sustained community transmission outside Africa. Ebola’s requirement for close contact, combined with declining transmission rates in key zones like Ituri, contact tracing, and isolation efforts, supports this assessment. Historical patterns of prior outbreaks and low modeled risk to distant populations reinforce the market-implied odds. Realistic scenarios that could shift outcomes include undetected exportations enabling wider chains or viral adaptations increasing transmissibility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
3% 確率
$764,285 Vol.
$764,285 Vol.
2026/12/31
3% 確率
$764,285 Vol.
$764,285 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigning a 97.2% implied probability to no Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. Official WHO and CDC data show over 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across seven northeastern DRC provinces by mid-September, with limited linked cases in Uganda and one imported case in France, but no evidence of sustained community transmission outside Africa. Ebola’s requirement for close contact, combined with declining transmission rates in key zones like Ituri, contact tracing, and isolation efforts, supports this assessment. Historical patterns of prior outbreaks and low modeled risk to distant populations reinforce the market-implied odds. Realistic scenarios that could shift outcomes include undetected exportations enabling wider chains or viral adaptations increasing transmissibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
音量
$764,285終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigning a 97.2% implied probability to no Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. Official WHO and CDC data show over 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across seven northeastern DRC provinces by mid-September, with limited linked cases in Uganda and one imported case in France, but no evidence of sustained community transmission outside Africa. Ebola’s requirement for close contact, combined with declining transmission rates in key zones like Ituri, contact tracing, and isolation efforts, supports this assessment. Historical patterns of prior outbreaks and low modeled risk to distant populations reinforce the market-implied odds. Realistic scenarios that could shift outcomes include undetected exportations enabling wider chains or viral adaptations increasing transmissibility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$764,285終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigning a 97.2% implied probability to no Ebola pandemic in 2026 stems from the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak remaining regionally contained despite rapid early growth. Official WHO and CDC data show over 7,000 confirmed cases and 3,500 deaths across seven northeastern DRC provinces by mid-September, with limited linked cases in Uganda and one imported case in France, but no evidence of sustained community transmission outside Africa. Ebola’s requirement for close contact, combined with declining transmission rates in key zones like Ituri, contact tracing, and isolation efforts, supports this assessment. Historical patterns of prior outbreaks and low modeled risk to distant populations reinforce the market-implied odds. Realistic scenarios that could shift outcomes include undetected exportations enabling wider chains or viral adaptations increasing transmissibility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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