Recent Ipsos B&A polling for Irish Times/TG4, conducted May 1-5, shows Fine Gael's Seán Kyne holding a slim first-preference lead at 17% over Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 16% in the Galway West by-election set for May 22, with Labour's Helen Ogbu third at 12% and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich at 9%; however, trader consensus prices Thomas the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability versus Kyne's 32.6%, signaling expectations of superior transfers for Thomas amid Independent Ireland's rural appeal, fuel protest associations, and anti-government mood on housing, roads, and cost-of-living pressures. PR-STV dynamics in this crowded 17-candidate field, including a potential left-transfer pact, heighten uncertainty ahead of the May 18 Galway Bay FM debate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ノエル・トーマス 45%
シェーン・カイン 32.3%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.0%
ヘレン・オグブ 6.8%
$44,065 Vol.
$44,065 Vol.
2027/03/31
シーラ・ギャリティ
1%
シェーン・カイン
32%
ナイアル・マーフィー
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
10%
オーラ・ニュージェント
<1%
ヘレン・オグブ
7%
デンマン・ルーク
1%
ノエル・トーマス
45%
トーマス・ウェルビー
<1%
マイク・カバード
5%
マーク・ローハン
5%
ノエル・トーマス 45%
シェーン・カイン 32.3%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.0%
ヘレン・オグブ 6.8%
$44,065 Vol.
$44,065 Vol.
2027/03/31
シーラ・ギャリティ
$20,198 Vol.
1%
シェーン・カイン
$3,353 Vol.
32%
ナイアル・マーフィー
$1,792 Vol.
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$1,589 Vol.
10%
オーラ・ニュージェント
$1,592 Vol.
<1%
ヘレン・オグブ
$2,875 Vol.
7%
デンマン・ルーク
$1,564 Vol.
1%
ノエル・トーマス
$4,982 Vol.
45%
トーマス・ウェルビー
$1,609 Vol.
<1%
マイク・カバード
$2,051 Vol.
5%
マーク・ローハン
$2,461 Vol.
5%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent Ipsos B&A polling for Irish Times/TG4, conducted May 1-5, shows Fine Gael's Seán Kyne holding a slim first-preference lead at 17% over Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 16% in the Galway West by-election set for May 22, with Labour's Helen Ogbu third at 12% and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich at 9%; however, trader consensus prices Thomas the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability versus Kyne's 32.6%, signaling expectations of superior transfers for Thomas amid Independent Ireland's rural appeal, fuel protest associations, and anti-government mood on housing, roads, and cost-of-living pressures. PR-STV dynamics in this crowded 17-candidate field, including a potential left-transfer pact, heighten uncertainty ahead of the May 18 Galway Bay FM debate.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
音量
$44,065終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent Ipsos B&A polling for Irish Times/TG4, conducted May 1-5, shows Fine Gael's Seán Kyne holding a slim first-preference lead at 17% over Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 16% in the Galway West by-election set for May 22, with Labour's Helen Ogbu third at 12% and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich at 9%; however, trader consensus prices Thomas the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability versus Kyne's 32.6%, signaling expectations of superior transfers for Thomas amid Independent Ireland's rural appeal, fuel protest associations, and anti-government mood on housing, roads, and cost-of-living pressures. PR-STV dynamics in this crowded 17-candidate field, including a potential left-transfer pact, heighten uncertainty ahead of the May 18 Galway Bay FM debate.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
音量
$44,065終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Ipsos B&A polling for Irish Times/TG4, conducted May 1-5, shows Fine Gael's Seán Kyne holding a slim first-preference lead at 17% over Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 16% in the Galway West by-election set for May 22, with Labour's Helen Ogbu third at 12% and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich at 9%; however, trader consensus prices Thomas the frontrunner at 45.5% implied probability versus Kyne's 32.6%, signaling expectations of superior transfers for Thomas amid Independent Ireland's rural appeal, fuel protest associations, and anti-government mood on housing, roads, and cost-of-living pressures. PR-STV dynamics in this crowded 17-candidate field, including a potential left-transfer pact, heighten uncertainty ahead of the May 18 Galway Bay FM debate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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