Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.0〜2.5％ 31%
1.5〜2.0％ 29.5%
>2.5％ 19%
1.0〜1.5％ 9.8%
$58,195 Vol.
$58,195 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
4%
0.5～1.0％
3%
1.0〜1.5％
10%
1.5〜2.0％
30%
2.0〜2.5％
31%
>2.5％
19%
2.0〜2.5％ 31%
1.5〜2.0％ 29.5%
>2.5％ 19%
1.0〜1.5％ 9.8%
$58,195 Vol.
$58,195 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
$7,469 Vol.
4%
0.5～1.0％
$17,234 Vol.
3%
1.0〜1.5％
$3,824 Vol.
10%
1.5〜2.0％
$6,632 Vol.
30%
2.0〜2.5％
$7,095 Vol.
31%
>2.5％
$15,941 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$58,195終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$58,195終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underscore balanced risks around 2026 GDP growth, with CBO projecting 2.2% and S&P Global and Vanguard aligning near 2.1-2.3%. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow band, as fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven business investment support moderate expansion while tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East energy disruptions exert offsetting pressure. Q1 2026 growth printed at 1.6% annualized amid softer consumer spending, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming labor market releases, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications that could shift implied rate paths and risk appetite. The near-even split between the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% brackets highlights uncertainty over whether productivity gains will fully counter policy and geopolitical headwinds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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