Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, accelerating from the prior quarter's 0.5% pace amid a rebound in business investment and government spending, has reinforced trader positioning around moderate expansion for the full year. Market-implied odds assign the highest probability to growth above 2.5%, consistent with consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and several private economists projecting 2.0%–2.5% annual growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures and resilient consumer outlays. Offsetting factors include elevated energy prices and tariff effects that could moderate the pace, keeping the 2.0%–2.5% bracket as the next most favored outcome at 34.5%. Upcoming releases on second-quarter activity and inflation trends will likely influence any near-term shifts in these implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日>2.5％ 43%
2.0〜2.5％ 35%
1.5〜2.0％ 29.4%
0.5%未満 12.3%
$28,322 Vol.
$28,322 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
12%
0.5～1.0％
12%
1.0〜1.5％
12%
1.5〜2.0％
29%
2.0〜2.5％
35%
>2.5％
43%
>2.5％ 43%
2.0〜2.5％ 35%
1.5〜2.0％ 29.4%
0.5%未満 12.3%
$28,322 Vol.
$28,322 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
$3,911 Vol.
12%
0.5～1.0％
$15,332 Vol.
12%
1.0〜1.5％
$1,562 Vol.
12%
1.5〜2.0％
$1,536 Vol.
29%
2.0〜2.5％
$1,894 Vol.
35%
>2.5％
$4,088 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, accelerating from the prior quarter's 0.5% pace amid a rebound in business investment and government spending, has reinforced trader positioning around moderate expansion for the full year. Market-implied odds assign the highest probability to growth above 2.5%, consistent with consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and several private economists projecting 2.0%–2.5% annual growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures and resilient consumer outlays. Offsetting factors include elevated energy prices and tariff effects that could moderate the pace, keeping the 2.0%–2.5% bracket as the next most favored outcome at 34.5%. Upcoming releases on second-quarter activity and inflation trends will likely influence any near-term shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$28,322終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, accelerating from the prior quarter's 0.5% pace amid a rebound in business investment and government spending, has reinforced trader positioning around moderate expansion for the full year. Market-implied odds assign the highest probability to growth above 2.5%, consistent with consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and several private economists projecting 2.0%–2.5% annual growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures and resilient consumer outlays. Offsetting factors include elevated energy prices and tariff effects that could moderate the pace, keeping the 2.0%–2.5% bracket as the next most favored outcome at 34.5%. Upcoming releases on second-quarter activity and inflation trends will likely influence any near-term shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$28,322終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data showing 2.0% annualized growth, accelerating from the prior quarter's 0.5% pace amid a rebound in business investment and government spending, has reinforced trader positioning around moderate expansion for the full year. Market-implied odds assign the highest probability to growth above 2.5%, consistent with consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed Survey and several private economists projecting 2.0%–2.5% annual growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures and resilient consumer outlays. Offsetting factors include elevated energy prices and tariff effects that could moderate the pace, keeping the 2.0%–2.5% bracket as the next most favored outcome at 34.5%. Upcoming releases on second-quarter activity and inflation trends will likely influence any near-term shifts in these implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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